Tuesday, October 20, 2026 Prices as of 12:55 UTC, Oct 20
PricedNews
The odds behind the headlines
Midterms · 14 days out

Markets give Democrats a 62.5% chance of taking both chambers on November 3

The House looks settled to traders. The Senate is where the doubt sits.

House
91.5%
Democrats win control
Senate
64.5%
Democrats win control
Both chambers
62.5%
Democratic sweep

Prediction markets put a Democratic House at 91.5% and a Democratic Senate at 64.5%. The balance-of-power market prices a Democratic sweep at 62.5%, a Republican Senate with a Democratic House at 27.5%, and a Republican sweep at 8.5%.

Every Senate race and the full midterm odds →

Headlines, priced

All news →

Around the world

World →
The Eccles Building, home of the Federal Reserve, in Washington
The Eccles Building, Washington. Photo: Federal Reserve, public domain.
Fed & Economy

A hike at the next Fed meeting is at 11.5%. The meeting after is at 77.5%.

Hike, next meeting
11.5%
Hike, meeting after
77.5%

The target range today is 3.75–4.00%, with inflation at 3.7%. Source: Federal Reserve and BLS via FRED.

Full Fed odds and history →

Across the markets

Busiest in the past day

World

Elections priced around the world
Brazil · runoff Sunday, Oct 25

Bolsonaro is still the favourite, but his lead has shrunk by 10.2 points in a week

Flávio Bolsonaro76.3%▼10.2 this week
Lula22.5%▲10.0 this week

Flávio Bolsonaro finished first in the Oct 4 first round, ahead of the polls. His odds went from 64.2% at the Oct 4 close to 83.5% a day later and peaked at 89.0% on Oct 10 before sliding as runoff polls tightened.

$188.8M traded, $813K in the past day. Context written 2026-10-19.

Full Brazil runoff odds →
Israel · election Tuesday, Oct 27

Eisenkot leads Netanyahu in the race to be prime minister

Gadi Eisenkot47.8%▲1.1 today
Benjamin Netanyahu27.5%▼1.0 today

The prime minister market is the deeper of Israel's two election markets. The party market asks which list wins the most Knesset seats. There, Yashar is at 72.5%.

$49.3M traded.

Full Israel election odds →
France · April 2027

Marine Le Pen leads the race for the Élysée

46.7%Marine Le Pen▼0.3
18.5%Édouard Philippe0.0
11.7%David Lisnard0.0
10.5%Jean-Luc Mélenchon0.0

$154.1M traded. 24-hour change.

Full France 2027 odds →

The 2028 race, priced

$1.3B traded on the Democratic nomination

Democratic nominee

15.8%Gavin Newsom
▲0.1
15.0%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
▲0.3
14.8%Jon Ossoff
▼0.4

Wins the presidency

20.1%JD Vance
0.0
13.1%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
0.0
10.0%Jon Ossoff
▼0.5
Full 2028 odds and both nominations →
Thin markets
We track these but don't lead with them, because a single large order can move the price: Adamawa, Nigeria Governor Election Winner ($22K traded); Delta, Nigeria Governor Election Winner ($22K traded); Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Turnout ($24K traded); October Inflation US - Annual ($18K traded).