2028 Presidential Election Odds
Who prediction markets expect to win the White House, and who each party is likely to nominate.
Chance of winning, this year
Weekly close, Polymarket.
Who wins in November 2028
$717.6M traded on the winner market.
Democratic nominee
$1.3B traded.
Republican nominee
$713.8M traded.
Left out: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Person AA, Person AB, Person AC, Person AD, Person AE, Person AF, Person AG, Person AH, Person AI, Person AJ, Person AK, Person AL, Person AM, Person AN, Person AO, Person AP, Person AQ, Person AR, Person AS, Person AT, Person AU, Person AV, Person AW, Person AX, Person AY, Person AZ, Person BA, Person BB, Person BC, Person BD, Person BE, Person BF, Person BG, Person BH, Person BI, Person BJ, Person BK, Person BL, Person BM, Person BN, Person BO, Person BP, Person BQ, Person BR, Person BS, Person BT, Person BU, Person BV, Person BW, Person BX, Person BY, Person BZ, Person CA, Person CB, Person CC, Person CD, Person CE, Person CF, Person CG, Person CH, Person CI, Person CJ, Person CK, Person CL, Person CM, Person CN, Person CO, Person CP, Person CQ, Person CR, Person CS, Person CT, Person CU, Person CV, Person CW, Person CX, Person CY, Person CZ. The quote hasn't traded and the prices add up to more than 100%.
What moved it
The first primaries are more than a year away, so these markets price names more than campaigns. Expect them to move after the midterms.
The clearest trend this year is on the Democratic side. Gavin Newsom started 2026 as the Democrat most likely to win the presidency, at 16.5%, and has roughly halved since. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez went from 7.5% to about 13%, and Jon Ossoff from under 2% in February to about 10%.
JD Vance still leads, but he has slipped from 30.5% in January to about 20%. He remains the clear favourite for the Republican nomination.
Written 2026-10-20. Live numbers on this page update every minute.
Questions
Who is favoured to win the 2028 election?
JD Vance at 20.1%. By party, Democrats are at 65.0% and Republicans at 34.5%.
Who leads the Democratic race?
Gavin Newsom 15.8%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 15.0%, Jon Ossoff 14.7%.
Who leads the Republican race?
J.D. Vance 43.8%, Marco Rubio 15.1%.
When is the 2028 presidential election?
Tuesday, November 7, 2028.