Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
$5.3M traded on Polymarket, $9K in the past day.
How it has moved
Daily closeAbout this market
Who prices it. $5.3M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $9K of it in the past day, with $73K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Yes is 0.1 points, so the quoted price is a fair read.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by January 1, 2027, 73 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.