PricedNews / World / Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through
World · settles by Dec 31, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through?
$37.3M traded on Polymarket, $298K in the past day.
October 21
98.4%
24h ▲0.77d 0.0
October 31
87.5%
24h 0.07d ▲2.0
How it has moved
Daily closeOctober 21October 31November 15
About this market
Who prices it. $37.3M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $298K of it in the past day, with $352K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on October 21 is 0.1 points, so the quoted price is a fair read.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week. The latest headline we matched to it is “US envoy Barrack defends decision to join Israel in war on Iran” (Al Jazeera, October 20, 2026).
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 73 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Every outcome
98.4%October 210.0 7d
87.5%October 31▲2.0 7d
69.5%November 15▼5.5 7d
61.5%November 30▼3.0 7d
47.5%December 31▼9.0 7d
These add up to 364%. Some markets allow more than one outcome to happen, and prices always carry a small overround.