Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

$44.4M traded on Polymarket, $62K in the past day.

Yes

2.1^%

24h ▲0.17d ▼0.1

How it has moved

Daily close

Yes

In the news

No headline in the past two days has matched this market.

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Countries

China, Taiwan

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