Israel Election Odds
Who prediction markets expect to lead Israel's next government, which party wins the most seats, and why those aren't the same question.
Next prime minister, since July
Daily close, Polymarket.
Traders give Yashar a 72.5% chance of the most seats, and Eisenkot 48.1% to be sworn in
Coming first doesn't make you prime minister. Getting to 61 seats with partners does. The 24-point gap is how much doubt the market has that Eisenkot can build that coalition even if Yashar tops the count.
What moved it
Israel elects all 120 Knesset seats on Tuesday, Oct 27. A government needs 61. Gadi Eisenkot, a former army chief of staff, leads Yashar, the party now polling first.
A Times of Israel poll for its sister site Zman Yisrael, published Oct 15, had Yashar on 26 seats and Likud on 20. It put the opposition's Jewish-led parties on 54 seats and Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc on 49, so neither side reached 61 without help.
The party market moved hard that week. Yashar went from 48.5% on Oct 13 to 72% on Oct 19, and Likud fell from 49.5% to 28.5% over the same days.
Written 2026-10-20. Live numbers on this page update every minute.
How many seats Likud wins
Likud seats in the next Knesset, $814K traded. Under 20 seats is at 31.6%, ▲14.1 this week.
Questions
When is Israel's election?
Tuesday, October 27, 2026. Voters elect all 120 seats in the Knesset.
Who is favoured to be prime minister?
Gadi Eisenkot at 48.1%, Benjamin Netanyahu at 28.5%, Naftali Bennett at 12.5%.
How many seats does a government need?
61 of the 120. No party has won that many on its own, so every Israeli government is a coalition.
Why can a party win and its leader still not become prime minister?
Seats only matter if they add up to 61 with partners. The leader who can assemble that coalition gets sworn in, which can take weeks after the vote.
When does the prime minister market pay out?
When someone is formally sworn in after this election. A caretaker doesn't count, and with nobody sworn in by Dec 31, 2027, it resolves to Other.