PricedNews / US Politics / 2026 midterm election odds
Election Day · Tuesday, November 3
2026 Midterm Election Odds
Who prediction markets expect to control Congress, race by race, and how that view has shifted over the past year.
14 days to Election Day
Senate · Democrats
64.5%
Republicans 36.5%
24h 0.07d ▲1.0
House · Democrats
91.5%
Republicans 8.5%
24h ▲1.07d ▲1.0
Balance of power
$25.5M traded
D sweep 62.5%R Senate, D House
Democrats sweep62.5%
R Senate, D House27.5%
Republicans sweep8.5%
D Senate, R House0.9%
Democrats win the Senate, past year
Weekly close, Polymarket.
What moved it
A year ago this looked like a Republican Senate. Democratic odds sat around 28% through the late summer of 2025, crossed 50% in the spring, slipped back into the mid-40s over the summer, and climbed from about 45% to the low 60s from mid-August.
The House was never really in doubt for traders. Democrats have been favoured all year and passed 90% in late September.
Written 2026-10-19.
The Senate races that decide it
Sorted by how close the market thinks each race is. Candidates as listed by the market.
Iowa$918K traded
58.5% Ashley Hinson (R)Josh Turek (D) 42.5%
▲1.0
leader, 7d
Texas$4.3M traded
62.5% James Talarico (D)Ken Paxton (R) 37.5%
▼2.0
leader, 7d
Kansas$925K traded
62.5% Roger Marshall (R)Adam Hamilton (D) 37.5%
0.0
leader, 7d
Maine$2.3M traded
63.5% Troy Jackson (D)Susan Collins (R) 36.5%
▲4.0
leader, 7d
Ohio$1.4M traded
63.5% Sherrod Brown (D)Jon Husted (R) 35.5%
▲2.0
leader, 7d
Michigan$2.0M traded
70.5% Abdul El-Sayed (D)Mike Rogers (R) 30.5%
0.0
leader, 7d
Nebraska$737K traded
71.5% Pete Ricketts (R)Independent 28.5%
▼1.0
leader, 7d
Alaska$1.5M traded
73.5% Mary Peltola (D)Dan Sullivan (R) 25.5%
0.0
leader, 7d
S. Carolina$872K traded
82.5% Darline Graham Nordone (R)Annie Andrews (D) 17.5%
▼2.0
leader, 7d
Minnesota$282K traded
86.5% Peggy Flanagan (D)Michele Tafoya (R) 13.5%
▼1.0
leader, 7d
Mississippi$187K traded
87.5% Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)Scott Colom (D) 12.5%
▼6.0
leader, 7d
N. Hampshire$400K traded
88.5% Chris Pappas (D)John E. Sununu (R) 11.5%
0.0
leader, 7d
Florida$239K traded
90.5% Ashley Moody (R)Angie Nixon (D) 9.5%
0.0
leader, 7d
Montana$184K traded
91.5% Kurt Alme (R)Independent 8.2%
0.0
leader, 7d
Georgia$248K traded
96.0% Jon Ossoff (D)Mike Collins (R) 4.0%
▲0.2
leader, 7d
N. Carolina$232K traded
96.1% Roy Cooper (D)Michael Whatley (R) 3.6%
▲0.1
leader, 7d
4 of these races traded under $3,000 in the past day, so their prices move slowly.
How many seats Republicans end up with
39.5%≤47
16.5%48
12.5%49
12.5%50
10.0%51
4.7%52
4.3%53
2.4%54
1.6%55
0.6%56
0.5%57+
Republican Senate seats after the election, $3.2M traded. Blue bars mean Democratic control, red mean Republican.
Questions
Who is favoured to win the Senate?
Democrats at 64.5%, Republicans at 36.5%.
Who is favoured to win the House?
Democrats at 91.5%, Republicans at 8.5%.
When is Election Day?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
What happens if the Senate splits 50-50?
The vice president breaks the tie, so with JD Vance in office a 50-50 Senate goes to Republicans under the markets' rules.