Tuesday, October 20, 2026 Prices as of 13:35 UTC, Oct 20
PricedNews
The odds behind the headlines
PricedNews / Weather & Climate

Weather & Climate

2 serious alerts live: Tropical cyclone Champi near Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, winds 135 kt; Tropical cyclone Simon near México.

Tropical cyclone: Tropical cyclone Champi near Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, winds 135 ktTropical cyclone: Tropical cyclone Simon near MéxicoWildfire: Wildfires in Papua New Guinea (9 alerts)Wildfire: Wildfires in Mozambique (17 alerts)Wildfire: Wildfires in Nigeria, Cameroon (2 alerts)Wildfire: Wildfires in Zambia (14 alerts)Wildfire: Wildfires in Botswana (5 alerts)Wildfire: Wildfires in Mali (2 alerts)Wildfire: Wildfires in Sudan (4 alerts)Wildfire: Wildfires in Chad (2 alerts)Wildfire: Wildfires in Australia (51 alerts)Wildfire: Wildfire in Zambia, MozambiqueEarthquake: M6.3 earthquake in Vanuatu IslandsWildfire: Wildfire in Zambia, ZimbabweWildfire: Wildfires in Zimbabwe (2 alerts)Wildfire: Wildfire in Botswana, South AfricaTropical cyclone: Tropical cyclone Trudy near México, winds 30 ktWildfire: Wildfires in Indonesia (7 alerts)Earthquake: M5.7 earthquake in Vanuatu IslandsEarthquake: M5.7 earthquake in Vanuatu IslandsEarthquake: M6.0 earthquake in VanuatuFlood: Flooding in MalaysiaFlood: Flooding in NicaraguaFlood: Flooding in El SalvadorFlood: Flooding in SpainTropical cyclone: Tropical cyclone Wati near Cook Islands, French Polynesia, winds 45 ktWildfire: Wildfires in Nigeria (2 alerts)Wildfire: Wildfire in NamibiaWildfire: Wildfire in Chad, Nigeria, CameroonWildfire: Wildfire in Democratic Republic of the CongoWildfire: Wildfires in Botswana, Zimbabwe (2 alerts)Wildfire: Wildfires in Senegal, Mali (2 alerts)Wildfire: Wildfire in South Sudan, SudanWildfire: Wildfires in Brazil (13 alerts)Wildfire: Wildfire in MadagascarWildfire: Wildfire in Zambia, MalawiEarthquake: M5.7 earthquake in PakistanWildfire: Wildfire in Papua New Guinea, AustraliaWildfire: Wildfire in MalawiWildfire: Wildfire in Chad, Nigeria
Red alertOrange alertGreen alert or no ratingTap a dot for the details.

Today's temperature bets

What traders expect the day's high to be, city by city. These settle on the official weather-station reading.

Seoul (Incheon) · Oct 21
17°C55%
Next: 18°C at 27%
Polymarket · $31K traded · settles in 22h
Beijing · Oct 21
17°C56%
Next: 16°C at 34%
Polymarket · $22K traded · settles in 22h

Live alerts

Storm pages: Champi · Simon · Trudy · Wati

Storm season

How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026

Greater than 847.0%▼13.0
841.0%▲8.0
710.7%▲7.0
$193K traded

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027

Yes4.2%▼0.5
$143K traded

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027

Yes10.0%▼0.5
$351K traded

Weather and climate markets

How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026

Greater than 847.0%▼13.0
841.0%▲8.0
710.7%▲7.0
$193K traded

What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño

Over 2.572.5%▲3.5
2.25–2.527.5%▼4.0
2.0–2.250.5%▼1.2
$111K traded

When will the Rhine River return to normal levels

October 1 - 31, 202665.5%▼2.5
No return before November 1, 202632.0%▲4.0
$145K traded

When will the Danube River return to normal levels

Does not return by November 1, 202685.5%▲0.1
October 1 - 31, 202614.5%▲0.5
$154K traded

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record

180.5%▼1.5
218.5%0.0
30.3%0.0
$3.8M traded

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026

17–1918.5%0.0
11–1314.5%▼3.5
20+1.3%0.0
$1.5M traded

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027

Yes4.0%▼0.3
$333K traded

Natural Disaster in 2026

Yes11.0%▲3.5
$251K traded

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027

Yes4.2%▼0.5
$143K traded

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026

Yes8.1%▼0.1
$148K traded

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027

Yes10.0%▼0.5
$351K traded

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027

Yes1.2%▲0.3
$833K traded