Brazil Election Odds
Who prediction markets expect to win the runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, how close they think it will be, and how that has moved.
Chance of winning, since July
Daily closePolymarket, $188.8M traded, $834K in the past day.
What moved it
Flávio Bolsonaro took about 47% of valid votes in the Oct 4 first round to Lula's 44.9%, with nearly 99% counted, according to Al Jazeera. Neither cleared 50%, so the two meet again on Sunday, Oct 25. Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, who drew about 5.3 million votes between them, said they would back neither.
The market moved overnight. Bolsonaro was at 64.2% at the Oct 4 close and 83.5% a day later, and he peaked at 89.0% on Oct 10.
Since then the polls have tightened. Datafolha on Oct 15 had Bolsonaro ahead 47% to 45%, down from a four-point lead a week earlier. Lula's price went from 13.5% on Oct 14 to 20.5% two days later. On Oct 19, Reuters reported two more polls with Bolsonaro narrowly ahead on valid votes: Nexus/BTG Pactual at 50.3% to 49.7%, and AtlasIntel/Bloomberg at 51.1% to 48.9%.
That leaves a gap worth watching. The polls are close to even, and the market still makes Bolsonaro a clear favourite.
Written 2026-10-20. Live numbers on this page update every minute.
The margin market is more sure of Bolsonaro than the main market
A separate market prices the size of the win. Add up every Bolsonaro bucket and strip out its 2.7-point overround, and you get 80.0% for a Bolsonaro win.
How close traders think it will be
A finish within 4 points either way is priced at 59.4%. Margin of victory in the runoff, $3.2M traded.
State by state
Polymarket runs separate runoff markets for a handful of places. These are the ones with trading.
| Place | Favourite | Price | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minas Gerais | Bolsonaro | 92.1% | $26K |
| Amapá | Bolsonaro | 68.5% | $216K |
| Amazonas | Lula | 61.5% | $104K |
| Pará | Lula | 80.5% | $74K |
| Voters abroad | Lula | 67.5% | $105K |
Markets under $25K traded are marked thin. Their prices move on small trades.
Questions
When is Brazil's runoff?
Sunday, October 25, 2026.
Who is favoured to win?
Flávio Bolsonaro at 76.5%, Lula at 22.5%, on Polymarket's main market.
What happened in the first round?
Bolsonaro finished first with about 47% of valid votes and Lula second with 44.9%, as reported by Al Jazeera. Nobody cleared 50%, so the top two go to a runoff.
When will we know the result?
Brazil votes electronically and counts fast. In recent elections the winner was clear on the evening of the vote.
What if the result is disputed?
The main market follows a consensus of credible reporting, then the Superior Electoral Court's official count if that's unclear. With no known result by June 30, 2027, it resolves to Other.