France Election Odds 2027
Who prediction markets expect to succeed Emmanuel Macron, who makes the runoff, and how Marine Le Pen's court case changed the race.
Chance of winning, this year
Weekly closePolymarket, $154.1M traded.
What moved it
France votes on April 18, 2027, with a runoff on May 2 if nobody wins a majority, which has happened every time since 1965. The top two from the first round go through.
For most of this year the market didn't think Marine Le Pen could run. She was barred from office after her conviction for misusing European Parliament funds, and her price sat mostly between 5% and 10%. On July 7 the Paris Court of Appeal upheld the conviction but cut the ban to 45 months, 30 of them suspended. The court's president said the ban already served since March 31, 2025 had "remedied the breach of probity", Eunews reported. Le Pen said she would run. Her price went from 8.5% to 27.6% that week.
She has kept climbing since. The other move to watch is David Lisnard, the mayor of Cannes, who went from about 3% in early September to about 12% in October.
Jordan Bardella, the National Rally's president, is at 0.5%.
Written 2026-10-20. Live numbers on this page update every minute.
Who makes the runoff
Traders are close to sure Le Pen reaches the second round, at 90.0%. Whether she wins it is the open question: 46.7%.
$394K traded. Two candidates go through, so these add up to about 200%.
Who will be on the ballot
Candidates need 500 signatures from elected officials to make the ballot. These are the chances each gets there.
| Candidate | On the ballot | 7 days |
|---|---|---|
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 93.7% | ▼0.3 |
| Marine Le Pen | 91.5% | ▼0.5 |
| Fabien Roussel | 86.0% | ▲5.5 |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 86.0% | ▼1.5 |
| Édouard Philippe | 83.0% | ▼6.5 |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 83.0% | ▼6.5 |
| David Lisnard | 81.5% | ▲8.0 |
| Éric Zemmour | 80.0% | ▼1.5 |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 67.5% | ▲2.5 |
| Bruno Retailleau | 59.5% | ▲1.0 |
| Dominique de Villepin | 31.5% | ▲1.0 |
| Marine Tondelier | 31.0% | ▼0.5 |
Questions
When is the French presidential election?
The first round is on Sunday, April 18, 2027. If nobody wins a majority, the top two meet in a runoff on Sunday, May 2.
Can Marine Le Pen run?
Yes, as things stand. On July 7, 2026, the Paris Court of Appeal upheld her conviction but cut her ban from office to 45 months, 30 of them suspended, which leaves her free to stand in 2027. She has said she will appeal again.
Who is favoured to win?
Marine Le Pen at 46.7%, then Édouard Philippe at 18.5%, on Polymarket's main market.
Why do the runoff odds add up to more than 100%?
Two candidates make the runoff, so each price is a separate yes-or-no bet. Added together they come to about 200%.