How to read the markets

Four short guides, each with live examples from the site.

How prediction market prices work

A price is what traders pay for a contract that pays $1 if something happens.

70% means it doesn't happen three times in ten. That matters more than it sounds.

A poll asks how people would vote today. A market prices who wins on the day.

Every market has written rules. They decide who gets paid, and they're often stricter than the headline.