PricedNews / Venues
The same question, seven venues
Polymarket is our main source. These are the other places that price the same questions, and where they don't agree.
Where they disagree
No two money venues are more than 8 points apart on anything we track right now.
Who's who
| Venue | What it is | Markets used | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Crypto-settled exchange and our main source. Every headline number on the site is Polymarket's. | 279 | Every minute |
| Kalshi | US exchange regulated by the CFTC. Deep on US politics, the Fed and the weather. | 5 | Updated 3 min ago |
| Smarkets | UK betting exchange. Many political contracts trade rarely, so we only use a price traded in the past week, or a tight live quote. | 10 | Updated 3 min ago |
| Limitless | Crypto exchange on Base. Mostly short-term crypto and earnings bets, so few of its markets pair with ours. | 0 | No markets in common right now |
| Myriad | Runs markets in both points and USDC, so its volume isn't comparable. Shown, but left out of the average. | 4 | Updated just now |
| Metaculus | A forecasting community, not a market: the number is the community's weighted forecast. Shown once Metaculus grants API access to its community forecasts. | 0 | Waiting on Metaculus data access |
| Manifold | Play money. A sanity check, left out of the average. | 6 | Updated 7 min ago |
Side by side
Every question at least two venues price, widest gap between the money venues first. Tap a price to open it on that venue.
| Question | Polymarket | Kalshi | Smarkets | Limitless | Myriad | Metaculus | Manifold | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | 15% | 19% | 20% | – | 7% | – | – | 18% |
| Édouard Philippe Next French Presidential Election | 19% | – | 14% | – | – | – | – | 16% |
| Democratic Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election | 65% | – | 61% | – | – | – | – | 63% |
| 25 bps increase Fed Decision in December | 78% | 74% | – | – | – | – | – | 76% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Presidential Election Winner 2028 | 13% | 10% | 12% | – | 2% | – | – | 12% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | 15% | – | 18% | – | 5% | – | – | 17% |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Brazil Presidential Election | 23% | 22% | 24% | – | – | – | – | 23% |
| No change Fed Decision in December | 20% | 22% | – | – | – | – | – | 21% |
| JD Vance Presidential Election Winner 2028 | 20% | 21% | 18% | – | 40% | – | 21% | 20% |
| Gavin Newsom Presidential Election Winner 2028 | 9% | 12% | 10% | – | 10% | – | – | 10% |
| Jon Ossoff Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | 15% | – | 17% | – | 6% | – | – | 16% |
| Thomas Massie Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | 1% | 1% | 3% | – | 1% | – | – | 2% |
| Republican Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election | 35% | – | 37% | – | – | – | – | 36% |
| Ron DeSantis Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | 3% | 5% | 4% | – | 1% | – | – | 4% |
| Tucker Carlson Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | 3% | 3% | 5% | – | 1% | – | – | 3% |
| Marco Rubio Presidential Election Winner 2028 | 9% | 10% | 8% | – | 4% | – | – | 9% |
| Flávio Bolsonaro Brazil Presidential Election | 77% | 79% | 78% | – | – | – | – | 78% |
| 50+ bps increase Fed Decision in December | 3% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | 4% |
| Kamala Harris Presidential Election Winner 2028 | 4% | 4% | 3% | – | 2% | – | – | 4% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon Next French Presidential Election | 11% | – | 12% | – | – | – | – | 11% |
| J.D. Vance Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | 44% | 43% | 42% | – | 57% | – | – | 43% |
| Cory Booker Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | 1% | – | 2% | – | 1% | – | – | 1% |
| Jon Ossoff Presidential Election Winner 2028 | 10% | 9% | 10% | – | 1% | – | – | 10% |
| Gavin Newsom Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | 16% | – | 14% | – | 42% | – | – | 15% |
| Thomas Massie Presidential Election Winner 2028 | 1% | 1% | 2% | – | 1% | – | – | 1% |
| Republicans Sweep Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms | 9% | 10% | 8% | – | – | – | – | 9% |
| Mark Kelly Presidential Election Winner 2028 | 1% | 3% | – | – | – | – | – | 2% |
| Donald Trump Presidential Election Winner 2028 | 1% | 3% | – | – | 8% | – | – | 2% |
| Mark Kelly Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | 2% | – | 3% | – | 1% | – | – | 3% |
| Democratic Party Which party will win the House in 2026 | 92% | – | 93% | – | – | – | – | 92% |
| Democrats Sweep Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms | 63% | 64% | 64% | – | – | – | 63% | 63% |
| Donald Trump Jr. Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | 2% | 2% | 3% | – | 3% | – | – | 2% |
| Ron DeSantis Presidential Election Winner 2028 | 3% | 2% | 2% | – | 1% | – | – | 3% |
| Ro Khanna Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | 1% | – | 2% | – | 7% | – | – | 2% |
| Kamala Harris Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | 6% | – | 7% | – | 1% | – | – | 7% |
| Republican Party Which party will win the Senate in 2026 | 37% | – | 36% | – | – | – | – | 36% |
| Josh Shapiro Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | 5% | – | 6% | – | 1% | – | – | 6% |
| Jamie Dimon Presidential Election Winner 2028 | 0% | 1% | – | – | 3% | – | – | 1% |
| R Senate, D House Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms | 28% | 28% | 27% | – | – | – | – | 27% |
| Andy Beshear Presidential Election Winner 2028 | 2% | 3% | – | – | 1% | – | – | 2% |
| Republican Party Which party will win the House in 2026 | 9% | – | 8% | – | – | – | – | 8% |
| David Lisnard Next French Presidential Election | 12% | – | 11% | – | – | – | – | 11% |
| Ted Cruz Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | 2% | 2% | 3% | – | 1% | – | – | 2% |
| Andy Beshear Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | 3% | – | 3% | – | 1% | – | – | 3% |
| Pete Buttigieg Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | 5% | – | 5% | – | 1% | – | – | 5% |
| J.B. Pritzker Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | 1% | – | 1% | – | 5% | – | – | 1% |
| Josh Shapiro Presidential Election Winner 2028 | 3% | 3% | 3% | – | 1% | – | – | 3% |
| Donald Trump Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | 2% | 2% | – | – | 3% | – | – | 2% |
| Democratic Party Which party will win the Senate in 2026 | 65% | – | 64% | – | – | – | 62% | 64% |
| Greg Abbott Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | 0% | 0% | 0% | – | 3% | – | – | 0% |
| Wes Moore Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | 2% | – | 2% | – | 1% | – | – | 2% |
| Pete Buttigieg Presidential Election Winner 2028 | 3% | 3% | 3% | – | 1% | – | – | 3% |
| Avigdor Lieberman Prime Minister of Israel after the next election | 3% | – | 3% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Benjamin Netanyahu Prime Minister of Israel after the next election | 28% | – | 30% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Gadi Eisenkot Prime Minister of Israel after the next election | 48% | – | 48% | – | – | – | 42% | – |
| Naftali Bennett Prime Minister of Israel after the next election | 13% | – | 12% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Barack Obama Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | 0% | – | – | – | 2% | – | – | – |
| Zohran Mamdani Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | 0% | – | – | – | 3% | – | – | – |
| Kylian Mbappé Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 | 6% | – | – | – | 16% | – | – | – |
| Lamine Yamal Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 | 19% | – | – | – | 64% | – | – | – |
We pair markets two ways. For our standing pages, each pair is checked by hand. For everything else we pair by title and by outcome names, and only when both line up. Rules can still differ between venues, so read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same bet.
The average counts only real-money venues with enough traded that one order can't set the price. Myriad, Metaculus and Manifold are shown in grey and left out of it. We flag a disagreement at 8 points or more between two money venues.
Prices come from each venue's public data and link back to the venue. Nothing here is betting or investment advice.