How the markets did

Every market we cover that has settled, with the price of what actually happened a week and a day before.

Nothing has settled yet. The first results land here automatically.

How we score it

For each market we take the price of the outcome that happened, 24 hours and 7 days before the moment it was decided. For a Fed meeting that's the statement. For an election it's when the polls close, not when the market settles, which can be days later.

"Favourite won" means that price was above 50%. The Brier score is the average of (1 − price)², so a market that always gave the result 100% would score 0.

We add every market we cover once it settles, including the ones it got wrong. Nothing gets dropped from this table.