Fed Rate Decision Odds
What prediction markets expect the Federal Reserve to do at its next meeting, and how that bet has changed.
October meeting
Daily close, Polymarket.
What moved it
- Sep 16
The Fed raised rates by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike since July 2023, in a 12–0 vote. Officials' projections showed 16 of 18 expecting at least one more hike this year. A day before, the market had the hike at 88.5%.
- Late Sep
October hike odds climbed to 68.5% by Sept 29, then fell by about 30 points in a day on Sept 30. investingLive reported that comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who said there was no need for urgency, led traders to largely price out an October move.
- Oct 7
Minutes of the September meeting said most officials expected another hike would likely be needed this year. October hold odds stayed above 80% through the release.
- Oct 15–16
Hold odds rose from about 72.5% to 86.5% after Chair Kevin Warsh said a hotter-than-expected inflation reading had not changed his view of the economy. Trading Economics reported traders scaled back October hike bets after the remarks.
- Past 24h
No change is at 86.5%, up 1.0 points from a day ago.
Timeline written 2026-10-19. The past-24h line updates with the market.
The meetings after this one
| Meeting | No change | Hike 25 | Hike 50+ | Any cut | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9 | 19.5% | 77.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% | $4.1M |
| Jan 27 | 57.5% | 35.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | $658K |
Each meeting is its own market.
Questions
What are the odds the Fed raises rates in October?
Markets price a quarter-point hike at 12.5% and no change at 86.5%.
When is the next Fed meeting?
The next decision is on October 28, 2026. The one after is December 9.
Where do these odds come from?
We show Polymarket prices for its Fed decision markets. A contract at 84.5 cents means traders put roughly an 84.5% chance on that outcome. We don't run a model on top.