Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

About this market

Who prices it. $1.9M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $80K of it in the past day, with $131K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Yes is 1 point, so the quoted price is a fair read. How to read these odds.

Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.

What has moved it. No single hour or day crossed our alert threshold this week. The latest headline we matched to it is “Will Pete Hegseth be the blue tsunami’s next victim? | Arwa Mahdawi” (The Guardian, November 7, 2026).

What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 54 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.

How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.