Who prices it. $2.6M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $26K of it in the past day, with $1.2M in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Anthropic is 1 point, so the quoted price is a fair read.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 73 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Every outcome
50.5%Anthropic▲9.0 7d
40.5%Google▼2.0 7d
5.8%OpenAI▼2.8 7d
1.4%Meta▼1.7 7d
1.3%xAI▼0.6 7d
0.4%Alibaba▼0.2 7d
0.4%DeepSeek▼0.1 7d
0.4%Moonshot▼0.2 7d
0.3%Z.ai▼0.1 7d
0.3%Mistral0.0 7d
0.1%Microsoft0.0 7d
0.1%Amazon0.0 7d
0.1%ByteDance0.0 7d
0.1%Baidu0.0 7d
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.
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