Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by December 31, 2026?
$2.9M traded on Polymarket, $2K in the past day.
How it has moved
Daily closeAbout this market
Who prices it. $2.9M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $2K of it in the past day, with $258K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on December 31, 2027 is 2 points, so the quoted price is a fair read.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 73 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Every outcome
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.