Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
$8.2M traded on Polymarket, $55K in the past day.
How it has moved
Daily closeAbout this market
Who prices it. $8.2M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $55K of it in the past day, with $19K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Above 4.5k is 0.2 points, so the quoted price is a fair read.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 73 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Every outcome
These add up to 643%. Some markets allow more than one outcome to happen, and prices always carry a small overround.
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.