PricedNews / World / US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through
World · settles by Dec 31, 2026
US-Iran effective ceasefire: how long will it last?
$3.9M traded on Polymarket, $673K in the past day.
November 5
99.5%
24h ▼0.17d 0.0
November 6
98.8%
24h ▲1.57d 0.0
How it has moved
Daily closeNovember 5November 6
The numbers behind the chart
| Date | November 5 | November 6 |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2026 | 95.4% | 89.5% |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 98.8% | 92% |
| Nov 7, 2026 | 99.6% | 97.8% |
| Nov 8, 2026 | 99.5% | 98.7% |
About this market
Who prices it. $3.9M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $673K of it in the past day, with $107K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on November 5 is 0.2 points, so the quoted price is a fair read. How to read these odds.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No single hour or day crossed our alert threshold this week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 54 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time.
Every outcome
99.5%November 5 deadline passed0.0 7d
98.8%November 6 deadline passed0.0 7d
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.
Moves we wrote up
Questions
How long will the US-Iran effective ceasefire last?
Resolved: The November 5 date is at 99.5% on Polymarket as of 02:11 UTC, Nov 8, with $3.9M traded.
How does this market settle?
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time.
When does it settle?
By December 31, 2026.