PricedNews / World / US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31, 2026
World · settles by Dec 31, 2026
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31, 2026?
$2.3M traded on Polymarket, $97K in the past day.
December 31
37.0%
24h ▼1.07d ▲1.5
November 30
32.0%
24h ▲1.07d ▲7.5
How it has moved
Daily closeDecember 31November 30November 2
About this market
Who prices it. $2.3M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $97K of it in the past day, with $148K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on December 31 is 2 points, so the quoted price is a fair read.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. The biggest move in the past week: December 31 went from 30.5% to 36.5% on October 20, 2026.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 73 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Every outcome
37.0%December 31▲1.5 7d
32.0%November 30▲7.5 7d
15.1%November 2▼0.6 7d
12.8%October 31▼0.4 7d
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.