US-Yemen ceasefire continues through?
$2.1M traded on Polymarket, $22K in the past day. Prices are delayed.
How it has moved
Daily closeAbout this market
Who prices it. $2.1M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $22K of it in the past day, with $184K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on October 21 is 0.1 points, so the quoted price is a fair read.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by October 31, 2026, 12 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time.
Every outcome
These add up to 267%. Some markets allow more than one outcome to happen, and prices always carry a small overround.
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.