PricedNews / World / What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026
World · settles by Dec 31, 2026
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
$1.6M traded on Polymarket, $47K in the past day.
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)
10.5%
24h ▼0.57d ▼3.0
1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium
10.0%
24h ▲0.57d ▼4.5
How it has moved
Daily close≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)1+ Year Enrichment MoratoriumDilution of Iran's Uranium
The numbers behind the chart
| Date | ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium | Dilution of Iran's Uranium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | 47.5% | 28.5% | 58.5% |
| Jul 15, 2026 | 26.5% | 16% | 27% |
| Aug 4, 2026 | 31.5% | 29% | 31.5% |
| Aug 23, 2026 | 10% | 8.5% | 9.5% |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 8.5% | 10.5% | 9% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 15.5% | 9.5% | 12.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 13.5% | 9.5% | 12.5% |
| Nov 8, 2026 | 10.5% | 10% | 9.5% |
About this market
Who prices it. $1.6M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $47K of it in the past day, with $312K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) is 1 point, so the quoted price is a fair read. How to read these odds.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No single hour or day crossed our alert threshold this week. The latest headline we matched to it is “Calls for more funding as Victorian JP numbers dwindle” (ABC News (Australia), November 7, 2026).
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 54 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. Rules
Every outcome
10.5%≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)▼3.0 7d
10.0%1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium▼4.5 7d
9.5%Dilution of Iran's Uranium▼6.0 7d
8.5%Iran Reconstruction Funding▲2.0 7d
8.5%Enriched Uranium Surrender▼2.0 7d
7.0%Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)▼6.0 7d
In the news
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Questions
What are the odds: What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) is at 10.5% on Polymarket as of 02:15 UTC, Nov 8, with $1.6M traded.
How does this market settle?
Rules
When does it settle?
By December 31, 2026.