Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting?
$1.5M traded on Polymarket, $9K in the past day.
How it has moved
Daily closeThe numbers behind the chart
| Date | December 31, 2026 | November 30, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | 74.5% | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 66% | – |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 47.5% | 32.5% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 45.5% | 29.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 41.5% | 25% |
| Oct 26, 2026 | 34.5% | 25.5% |
| Nov 2, 2026 | 40.5% | 25.5% |
| Nov 8, 2026 | 45% | 27.5% |
About this market
Who prices it. $1.5M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $9K of it in the past day, with $133K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on December 31, 2026 is 2 points, so the quoted price is a fair read. How to read these odds.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No single hour or day crossed our alert threshold this week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 54 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. On September 22, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, with President Trump saying another meeting is scheduled in the near future.(see:…
Every outcome
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.
Questions
What are the odds: Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026 is at 45.0% on Polymarket as of 02:15 UTC, Nov 8, with $1.5M traded.
How does this market settle?
On September 22, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, with President Trump saying another meeting is scheduled in the near future.(see:…
When does it settle?
By December 31, 2026.