US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
$20.2M traded on Polymarket, $72K in the past day.
How it has moved
Daily closeAbout this market
Who prices it. $20.2M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $72K of it in the past day, with $288K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on December 31 is 1 point, so the quoted price is a fair read.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 73 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics.
Every outcome
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.