PricedNews / World / Iran leader end of 2026
World · settles by Dec 31, 2026
Iran leader end of 2026?
$40.9M traded on Polymarket, $46K in the past day.
Mojtaba Khamenei
91.5%
24h ▲0.97d ▲6.1
No Head of State
3.5%
24h ▼1.07d ▼1.0
How it has moved
Daily closeMojtaba KhameneiNo Head of StateAlireza Arafi
The numbers behind the chart
| Date | Mojtaba Khamenei | No Head of State | Alireza Arafi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 6.8% | 9.1% | – |
| Apr 8, 2026 | 46.2% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| May 13, 2026 | 64.2% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 83.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 72% | 6.3% | 1.2% |
| Aug 29, 2026 | 81.5% | 4.5% | 1.3% |
| Oct 3, 2026 | 87.6% | 4.6% | 1.1% |
| Nov 8, 2026 | 91.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
About this market
Who prices it. $40.9M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $46K of it in the past day, with $2.3M in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Mojtaba Khamenei is 1 point, so the quoted price is a fair read. How to read these odds.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No single hour or day crossed our alert threshold this week. Over the week Mojtaba Khamenei is up 6.1 points. The latest headline we matched to it is “Son of Iran's shah receives 'Freedom Prize' in Frankfurt” (DW, November 7, 2026).
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 54 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Every outcome
91.5%Mojtaba Khamenei▲6.1 7d
3.5%No Head of State▼1.0 7d
2.8%Alireza Arafi▲1.3 7d
1.1%Reza Pahlavi▼0.9 7d
0.4%Hassan Rouhani▼0.1 7d
0.3%Masoud Pezeshkian▼0.1 7d
0.3%Abbas Araghchi▼0.3 7d
0.3%Ahmad Vahidi▼0.6 7d
0.1%Muhammad Mirbaqiri0.0 7d
0.1%Sadegh Larijani0.0 7d
0.1%Hassan Khomeini▼0.3 7d
0.1%Hassan Shariatmadari▲0.1 7d
0.1%Maryam Rajavi▼0.3 7d
0.1%Navid Shomali▲0.1 7d
0.1%Mustafa Hijri▲0.1 7d
0.1%Nasir Hosseini▲0.1 7d
0.1%Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf▼0.4 7d
0.1%Massoud Rajavi0.0 7d
0.1%Seyed Hossein Mousavian0.0 7d
0.1%Reza Pirzadeh0.0 7d
In the news
Son of Iran's ousted shah takes controversial prize
Iran's Araghchi holds talks with 12 foreign ministers to defuse tensions
Germany news: Son of Iran's last shah takes center stage in Frankfurt
Germany news: Frankfurt braces for Iran protests
Questions
What are the odds: Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei is at 91.5% on Polymarket as of 02:11 UTC, Nov 8, with $40.9M traded.
How does this market settle?
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
When does it settle?
By December 31, 2026.