Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
$27.6M traded on Polymarket, $61K in the past day. Prices are delayed.
How it has moved
Daily closeAbout this market
Who prices it. $27.6M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $61K of it in the past day, with $502K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Yes is 1 point, so the quoted price is a fair read.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 73 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.