US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
$41.7M traded on Polymarket, $272K in the past day.
How it has moved
Daily closeAbout this market
Who prices it. $41.7M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $272K of it in the past day, with $352K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on March 31 is 2 points, so the quoted price is a fair read.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 73 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
Every outcome
These add up to 146%. Some markets allow more than one outcome to happen, and prices always carry a small overround.
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.