Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement?
$5.0M traded on Polymarket, $9K in the past day.
How it has moved
Daily closeThe numbers behind the chart
| Date | June 30, 2027 | December 31 |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | – | 45% |
| Mar 30, 2026 | – | 49% |
| May 6, 2026 | – | 43% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | – | 33.5% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 41.5% | 11% |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 34.5% | 5.5% |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 34% | 6.5% |
| Nov 8, 2026 | 18.5% | 4.5% |
About this market
Who prices it. $5.0M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $9K of it in the past day, with $111K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on June 30, 2027 is 1 point, so the quoted price is a fair read. How to read these odds.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No single hour or day crossed our alert threshold this week. Over the week June 30, 2027 is down 22.5 points.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by June 30, 2027, 235 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Every outcome
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.
Questions
What are the odds: Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027 is at 18.5% on Polymarket as of 02:50 UTC, Nov 8, with $5.0M traded.
How does this market settle?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
When does it settle?
By June 30, 2027.