PricedNews / World / Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms

World · settles by Nov 4, 2026

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$1.3M traded on Polymarket, $54K in the past day.

No Hormuz Agreement

87.5^%

24h ▲5.07d ▲3.9

Hormuz Agreement; D Senate

7.0^%

24h ▼5.37d ▼2.4

How it has moved

Daily close

No Hormuz AgreementHormuz Agreement; D SenateHormuz Agreement; R Senate

Every outcome

87.5%No Hormuz Agreement▲3.9 7d

7.0%Hormuz Agreement; D Senate▼2.4 7d

3.5%Hormuz Agreement; R Senate▼3.5 7d

In the news

No headline in the past two days has matched this market.

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Hormuz Agreement; R Senate" if a Hormuz Agreement is announced by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Hormuz Agreement; D Senate" if a Hormuz Agreement is announced by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "No Hormuz Agreement" immediately if a Hormuz Agreement is not announced by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Hormuz Agreement: A "Hormuz Agreement" will be considered to have occurred if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is announced by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal,…

Full rules and market on Polymarket

Countries

United States, Iran

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