US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

$19.0M traded on Polymarket, $1.8M in the past day.

October 22

93.0^%

24h ▼2.37d 0.0

October 24

88.5^%

24h ▼3.07d 0.0

How it has moved

Daily close

October 22October 24October 28

Every outcome

93.0%October 220.0 7d

88.5%October 240.0 7d

81.5%October 280.0 7d

78.5%October 31▼3.0 7d

67.0%November 80.0 7d

56.0%November 15▼5.5 7d

51.5%November 220.0 7d

45.5%November 30▼1.0 7d

34.5%December 31▼1.0 7d

These add up to 596%. Some markets allow more than one outcome to happen, and prices always carry a small overround.

In the news

No headline in the past two days has matched this market.

How it settles

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor sur…

Full rules and market on Polymarket

Countries

United States, Iran

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