PricedNews / World / Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23
World · settles by Nov 3, 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
$2.3M traded on Polymarket, $141K in the past day.
No Hormuz Agreement
87.2%
24h ▼0.67d ▼1.4
Hormuz Agreement; D Senate
7.4%
24h ▼1.27d ▲1.4
How it has moved
Daily closeNo Hormuz AgreementHormuz Agreement; R SenateHormuz Agreement; D Senate
About this market
Who prices it. $2.3M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $141K of it in the past day, with $104K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on No Hormuz Agreement is 3.1 points, a moderate spread, so treat the last decimal loosely.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. The biggest move in the past week: No Hormuz Agreement went from 93.6% to 87.4% on October 20, 2026.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by November 3, 2026, 15 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to "Hormuz Agreement; R Senate" if a Hormuz Agreement is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.
Every outcome
87.2%No Hormuz Agreement▼1.4 7d
7.4%Hormuz Agreement; D Senate▲1.4 7d
4.1%Hormuz Agreement; R Senate▼1.2 7d
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.