US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
$70K traded on Polymarket, $373 in the past day.
How it has moved
Daily closeThe numbers behind the chart
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | 7.5% |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 6.8% |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 7.7% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 5.5% |
| Oct 31, 2026 | 4.7% |
| Nov 8, 2026 | 3% |
About this market
Who prices it. $70K has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $373 of it in the past day, with $13K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Yes is 1.9 points, so the quoted price is a fair read. How to read these odds.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No single hour or day crossed our alert threshold this week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 54 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of the United States and China announce an AI pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.
Questions
What are the odds: US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
Yes is at 3.0% on Polymarket as of 02:15 UTC, Nov 8, with $70K traded.
How does this market settle?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of the United States and China announce an AI pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
When does it settle?
By December 31, 2026.