China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

$546K traded on Polymarket, $2K in the past day. Prices are delayed.

Yes

24.5^%

24h 0.07d ▼4.0

How it has moved

Daily close

Yes

In the news

No headline in the past two days has matched this market.

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (s…

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Countries

China, Philippines

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