China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

About this market

Who prices it. $3.5M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $728 of it in the past day, with $90K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Yes is 0.3 points, so the quoted price is a fair read.

Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.

What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.

What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 73 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.