PricedNews / World / US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms
World · settles by Nov 3, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
$824K traded on Polymarket, $142K in the past day.
Yes
77.5%
24h ▼4.07d 0.0
How it has moved
Daily closeYes
About this market
Who prices it. $824K has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $142K of it in the past day, with $374K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Yes is 1 point, so the quoted price is a fair read.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week. The latest headline we matched to it is “Iran Guards Say 2 "Violating" Oil Tankers Set Ablaze In Strait Of Hormuz” (NDTV, October 20, 2026).
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by November 3, 2026, 15 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.