PricedNews / World / Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30
World · settles by Nov 30, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
$1.5M traded on Polymarket, $14K in the past day.
Yes
3.0%
24h ▼0.37d ▼3.5
How it has moved
Daily closeYes
The numbers behind the chart
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Aug 25, 2026 | 24.5% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Sep 19, 2026 | 11.5% |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 27, 2026 | 5.5% |
| Nov 8, 2026 | 3% |
About this market
Who prices it. $1.5M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $14K of it in the past day, with $231K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Yes is 0.4 points, so the quoted price is a fair read. How to read these odds.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No single hour or day crossed our alert threshold this week. The latest headline we matched to it is “Explosions in Strait of Hormuz as Iran reviews de-escalation proposals” (ABC News (Australia), November 8, 2026).
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by November 30, 2026, 23 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
In the news
Iran's army says forces 'stronger' than at start of war, Hormuz to stay closed
Oil tanker on fire in Strait of Hormuz after mine collision
Qeshm island and Hormuz hit, as mediators try to prevent US-Iran escalation
Strait of Hormuz could reopen as part of Qatari plan for Iran nuclear inspections
Questions
What are the odds: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
Yes is at 3.0% on Polymarket as of 02:01 UTC, Nov 8, with $1.5M traded.
How does this market settle?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
When does it settle?
By November 30, 2026.