PricedNews / Tech & Science / Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026
Tech & Science · settles by Dec 31, 2026
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released?
$1.4M traded on Polymarket, $32K in the past day.
December 31
97.1%
24h ▼0.77d ▲4.6
November 30
85.5%
24h ▲1.07d ▲4.5
How it has moved
Daily closeDecember 31November 30November 19
The numbers behind the chart
| Date | December 31 | November 30 | November 19 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | 59.5% | – | – |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 88.5% | – | – |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 91.5% | – | – |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 95% | – | – |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 95.3% | – | – |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97.1% | – | – |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 94.1% | – | – |
| Nov 8, 2026 | 97.1% | 85.5% | 72% |
About this market
Who prices it. $1.4M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $32K of it in the past day, with $31K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on December 31 is 4.4 points, a moderate spread, so treat the last decimal loosely. How to read these odds.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No single hour or day crossed our alert threshold this week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 54 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Every outcome
97.1%December 31▲4.6 7d
85.5%November 30▲4.5 7d
72.0%November 19▲5.5 7d
48.0%November 12▼6.0 7d
44.0%November 10▼6.5 7d
29.0%November 9▼13.5 7d
These add up to 376%. Some markets allow more than one outcome to happen, and prices always carry a small overround.
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.
Moves we wrote up
Questions
What are the odds: Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31?
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31 is at 97.1% on Polymarket as of 03:10 UTC, Nov 8, with $1.4M traded.
How does this market settle?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
When does it settle?
By December 31, 2026.