Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

About this market

Who prices it. $872K has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $7K of it in the past day, with $28K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Yes is 0.3 points, so the quoted price is a fair read.

Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.

What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week. The latest headline we matched to it is “US envoy Barrack defends decision to join Israel in war on Iran” (Al Jazeera, October 20, 2026).

What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by October 31, 2026, 12 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.

How it settles, in short. On September 30, 2026, FlyDubai flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv diverted to Saudi Arabia following an incident in the cockpit in which the co-pilot allegedly stabbed the captain. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/diverted-flydubai-flight-israel-was-not-hijacking-incident-israeli-prime-2026-09-30/).