France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?
$37K traded on Polymarket, $844 in the past day.
How it has moved
Daily closeThe numbers behind the chart
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | 14.5% |
| Oct 26, 2026 | 12.5% |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 11% |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 7% |
| Nov 2, 2026 | 5% |
| Nov 4, 2026 | 5.5% |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 4.5% |
| Nov 8, 2026 | 4.2% |
About this market
Who prices it. $37K has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $844 of it in the past day, with $26K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Yes is 1.5 points, so the quoted price is a fair read. How to read these odds.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No single hour or day crossed our alert threshold this week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by November 30, 2026, 23 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.
Questions
What are the odds: France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?
Yes is at 4.2% on Polymarket as of 02:11 UTC, Nov 8, with $37K traded.
When does it settle?
By November 30, 2026.