Moody's or S&P downgrades France by November 30, 2026?
$28K traded on Polymarket, $0 in the past day.
How it has moved
Daily closeThe numbers behind the chart
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 76.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 79.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 74.5% |
| Oct 27, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 31, 2026 | 41.5% |
| Nov 4, 2026 | 34.5% |
| Nov 8, 2026 | 6.5% |
About this market
Who prices it. $28K has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $0 of it in the past day, with $694 in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Yes is 3 points, a moderate spread, so treat the last decimal loosely. How to read these odds.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No single hour or day crossed our alert threshold this week. Over the week Yes is down 17.5 points.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by November 30, 2026, 23 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Moody's Ratings or S&P Global Ratings publishes a rating action lowering its long-term sovereign credit rating for the Republic of France, at any point between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.
Questions
What are the odds: Moody's or S&P downgrades France by November 30, 2026?
Yes is at 6.5% on Polymarket as of 02:15 UTC, Nov 8, with $28K traded.
How does this market settle?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Moody's Ratings or S&P Global Ratings publishes a rating action lowering its long-term sovereign credit rating for the Republic of France, at any point between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
When does it settle?
By November 30, 2026.