France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?
$172K traded on Polymarket, $122K in the past day.
How it has moved
Daily closeAbout this market
Who prices it. $172K has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $122K of it in the past day, with $100K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on December 31 is 1 point, so the quoted price is a fair read.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 73 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Every outcome
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.