France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?
$202K traded on Polymarket, $42K in the past day.
How it has moved
Daily closeAbout this market
Who prices it. $202K has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $42K of it in the past day, with $144K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on December 31 is 0.6 points, so the quoted price is a fair read.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 73 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Every outcome
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.