Sunday, November 8, 2026 Prices as of 02:51 UTC, Nov 8
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PricedNews / US Politics / Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027
US Politics · settles by Dec 31, 2026

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

$2.2M traded on Polymarket, $135K in the past day.

Pete Hegseth
33.5%
24h ▲2.07d ▼1.0
Kristi Noem
27.2%
24h ▼1.37d ▲0.5

How it has moved

Daily close
Pete HegsethKristi NoemKash Patel
0%25%50%75%100%Dec2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov33.5%27.2%25%
The numbers behind the chart
DatePete HegsethKristi NoemKash Patel
Nov 7, 202527.5%–36.5%
Dec 29, 202535.5%37.5%64%
Feb 20, 202622.5%46.5%39.5%
Apr 13, 202643%64.9%63%
Jun 4, 202629%54.7%55.5%
Jul 26, 202620.5%25.2%31%
Sep 17, 202623%31.1%24%
Nov 8, 202633.5%27.2%25%

About this market

Who prices it. $2.2M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $135K of it in the past day, with $520K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Pete Hegseth is 1 point, so the quoted price is a fair read. How to read these odds.

Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.

What has moved it. No single hour or day crossed our alert threshold this week. The latest headline we matched to it is “Rubio warns top staff against conflicts of interest as U.S. Republicans look to 2028” (The Japan Times, November 7, 2026).

What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 54 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.

How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Every outcome

33.5%Pete Hegseth▼1.0 7d
27.2%Kristi Noem▲0.5 7d
25.0%Kash Patel▲5.0 7d
18.0%Howard Lutnick▲4.0 7d
13.5%Robert F. Kennedy Jr.▼4.0 7d
12.5%Marco Rubio▲2.0 7d
11.5%John Ratcliffe0.0 7d
9.5%Markwayne Mullin▼22.5 7d
9.0%Scott Bessent▲0.1 7d
8.5%Russell Vought▼31.0 7d
8.0%Tom Homan▼17.5 7d
7.5%Lee Zeldin▼6.5 7d
6.8%Dan Scavino▼20.9 7d
6.0%Stephen Miller▼5.9 7d
5.8%David Sacks▼8.7 7d

These add up to 202%. Some markets allow more than one outcome to happen, and prices always carry a small overround.

In the news

Moves we wrote up

Questions

What are the odds: Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Pete Hegseth is at 33.5% on Polymarket as of 02:51 UTC, Nov 8, with $2.2M traded.

How does this market settle?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

When does it settle?

By December 31, 2026.