Texas Senate Race 2026 Result: Talarico Wins
James Talarico (D) won Texas' Senate race on November 3, according to Polymarket's settled market, defeating Ken Paxton (R).
James Talarico (D) won Texas' Senate race
We're pulling the prices from before polls closed. They'll appear here within a few minutes.
This market has settled on Polymarket.
How the odds have moved
Daily close, PolymarketThe numbers behind the chart
| Date | James Talarico (D) | Ken Paxton (R) |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2025 | 18.5% | 81.5% |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 22.5% | 75% |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 35.5% | 56.5% |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 43% | 57.5% |
| May 23, 2026 | 44.5% | 54.5% |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 43% | 56.5% |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 50.5% | 50.5% |
| Nov 4, 2026 | 83.5% | 17.5% |
What it means for the Senate
Texas is one of 16 Senate races we track. Across all of them, Polymarket prices Democrats at 100.0% to control the Senate after November 3. See every race and the overall odds.
About this market
Who prices it. $21.8M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $0 of it in the past day. How to read these odds.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No single hour or day crossed our alert threshold this week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by November 3, 2026. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this race.
Questions
Who won the Texas Senate race in 2026?
James Talarico (D), according to Polymarket's settled market.
When was the election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
When does it settle?
By November 3, 2026.