Alaska Senate Race 2026 Odds: Peltola vs Sullivan
As of 9:26 pm ET on November 7, Polymarket prices Mary Peltola (D) at 98.4% to win Alaska's Senate race on November 3, and Dan Sullivan (R) at 1.8%. Peltola is a clear favourite on these prices.
How the odds have moved
Daily close, PolymarketThe numbers behind the chart
| Date | Mary Peltola (D) | Dan Sullivan (R) |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2025 | 16.5% | 75.5% |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 33% | 64% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 48.5% | 51% |
| Mar 31, 2026 | 51.5% | 45.5% |
| May 25, 2026 | 60.5% | 40.5% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 59.5% | 42% |
| Sep 13, 2026 | 67.5% | 33.5% |
| Nov 8, 2026 | 98.4% | 1.8% |
What it means for the Senate
Alaska is one of 16 Senate races we track. Across all of them, Polymarket prices Democrats at 100.0% to control the Senate after November 3. See every race and the overall odds.
About this market
Who prices it. $7.8M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $546K of it in the past day, with $1.5M in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Mary Peltola (D) is 0.2 points, so the quoted price is a fair read. How to read these odds.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No single hour or day crossed our alert threshold this week. Over the week Mary Peltola (D) is up 25.4 points.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by November 3, 2026. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this race.
Questions
Who is favoured in the Alaska Senate race?
Mary Peltola (D) at 98.4%, Dan Sullivan (R) at 1.8%, on Polymarket as of 9:26 pm ET on November 7.
When is the election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
When does it settle?
By November 3, 2026.