Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
$3.7M traded on Polymarket, $5K in the past day.
How it has moved
Daily closeThe numbers behind the chart
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 10.5% |
| Feb 19, 2026 | 10% |
| Apr 3, 2026 | 20.5% |
| May 17, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Aug 13, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 5.5% |
| Nov 8, 2026 | 2.5% |
About this market
Who prices it. $3.7M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $5K of it in the past day, with $131K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Yes is 0.2 points, so the quoted price is a fair read. How to read these odds.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No single hour or day crossed our alert threshold this week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 54 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.
Questions
What are the odds: Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Yes is at 2.5% on Polymarket as of 02:39 UTC, Nov 8, with $3.7M traded.
How does this market settle?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
When does it settle?
By December 31, 2026.