Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31, 2026?
$2.3M traded on Polymarket, $2K in the past day.
How it has moved
Daily closeThe numbers behind the chart
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | 42% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | 61.5% |
| Apr 4, 2026 | 62.5% |
| May 18, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 45.5% |
| Aug 13, 2026 | 21.5% |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 13.5% |
| Nov 8, 2026 | 4.1% |
About this market
Who prices it. $2.3M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $2K of it in the past day, with $47K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Yes is 0.8 points, so the quoted price is a fair read. How to read these odds.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No single hour or day crossed our alert threshold this week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 54 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.
Questions
What are the odds: Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31, 2026?
Yes is at 4.1% on Polymarket as of 02:39 UTC, Nov 8, with $2.3M traded.
How does this market settle?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
When does it settle?
By December 31, 2026.