US x China Military clash before 2027?
$223K traded on Polymarket, $103 in the past day.
How it has moved
Daily closeThe numbers behind the chart
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Apr 11, 2026 | 8% |
| May 23, 2026 | 5.5% |
| Jul 4, 2026 | 5.5% |
| Aug 15, 2026 | 4.3% |
| Sep 27, 2026 | 2.7% |
| Nov 8, 2026 | 2.3% |
About this market
Who prices it. $223K has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $103 of it in the past day, with $49K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Yes is 0.4 points, so the quoted price is a fair read. How to read these odds.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No single hour or day crossed our alert threshold this week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 54 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.
Questions
What are the odds: US x China Military clash before 2027?
Yes is at 2.3% on Polymarket as of 02:26 UTC, Nov 8, with $223K traded.
How does this market settle?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
When does it settle?
By December 31, 2026.