PricedNews / World / Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
World · settles by Oct 31, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
$2.9M traded on Polymarket, $83K in the past day.
Yes
1.1%
24h ▲0.67d ▲0.1
How it has moved
Daily closeYes
About this market
Who prices it. $2.9M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $83K of it in the past day, with $152K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Yes is 0.4 points, so the quoted price is a fair read.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week. The latest headline we matched to it is “Iran Guards Say 2 "Violating" Oil Tankers Set Ablaze In Strait Of Hormuz” (NDTV, October 20, 2026).
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by October 31, 2026, 12 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.