Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?

About this market

Who prices it. $1.9M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $3K of it in the past day, with $50K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Yes is 0.7 points, so the quoted price is a fair read.

Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.

What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week. The latest headline we matched to it is “Houthi attacks undermine Saudi Arabia's economic ambitions” (Al-Monitor, October 20, 2026).

What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 73 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.

How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.